Wednesday, May 4, 2016

The "No Union Challenge"


Let me start with a few proposals to define absolutes.

1). Guild Ball isn't shit. There - I said it. It's actually pretty ok and I'm finding myself quite reasonably if not significantly distracted from other games. At least until June at which point the real test begins (that test being mostly "will the attraction of only having to pack 6 models outweigh a deeper models/rules/interaction bench provided by MkIII").

2). The game's designers and testers (Steamforged et al) are not idiots. Saying this forces you to up the stakes of your faith in humanity a little, but I reckon we could agree and say with reasonable confidence that this is the case. They've made early mistakes but also released relatively quick errata and clarifications and toned down many of the more obnoxious rules and abilities. Some of the Season Two rulebook still confounds me but by and large the rules and game balance is fine.

3). If 1). and 2). are accurate, then the models in your Guild must be functionally playable (and play-tested) or they wouldn't exist.

4). The players available to any given Guild are immediately comparable to each other (whether they are apples, oranges, or indeed rhubarb) because they are all competing for a place on the team and must be weighed relative in merit, applicability, and playstyle/value directly against each other. You're only taking the players you are because you've decided they are superior to the alternatives (obviously now speaking in strictly competitive terms).


If we can agree on these absolutes (and let's face it - it's my article and this is a very one-sided conversation so I'm going to proceed assuming you have!) then while you can argue that one available player is "better" than another, you must also realise that each player at least offers something to the discerning coach that they are at least up for consideration before facing disqualification (for whatever reason).

What Stave sees before being rejected by the team. Every time.


Right, now that we've cleared that up. Here's where I'm actually headed - let me announce a challenge to everyone (caveat: who doesn't play Union as a Guild):

I HEREBY CHALLENGE YOU TO STOP USING UNION MODELS TO SUPPLEMENT YOUR TEAM; TO RUN A PURE GUILD TEAM FOR A MINIMUM OF 6 GAMES.

Why I'm focusing on Union models specifically is that they are often seen as a crutch of sorts to help your Guild out due to the perception that in-Guild options are worse. Classic examples are Gutter, Rage, Mist and Avarisse/Greede (although the last model(s) also open up tremendous tactical opportunity). Less common examples are likely Snakeskin and Hemlocke. Force yourself to let these players go, and dig into the bench of unused models sitting on the shelf (or still in their blister!).


******


Hear me out. This came about because around a week after picking up Guild Ball/Morticians and seeing the cards for the first time, I was chatting on Facebook with Will Wheaton (#secondbestmorticiansplayerinthecountry #FishOP) and we agreed that the best Morticians build was:

Obulus, Dirge, Ghast, Silence, Rage, Mist


I will cheerfully admit that this is open (hopefully) to debate but looking at teams being played internationally (YouTube batreps, forum batreps, teams winning events etc) it certainly aligned to our thinking. You might have included Casket or Cosset on the bench, but the undeniable majority of Morticians games being played (that I could find) were continually using the same 6 players.

And this my friends... well, this made me very sad. Because that means that Steamforged have either designed a horribly shallow and dead-end Guild, or (worse) designed a horribly shallow and dead-end game (bearing in mind that I cannot speak much for other factions - although I have heard rumours that Alchemists is/was actually Midas/Vitriol plus a bunch of imports, that Gutter is an honorary Butcher, and that Decimate is Honour's other sister). And that means the game is going to get boring very quickly because you keep dropping the same team and/or you keep playing the same team. And we all know what that feels like (#Lich2 #Vayl2 #Mk2dieinafire). And that means I might as well chuck Guild Ball in right now.

So that got me thinking. And when I looked at "competitive" Morticians and what they weren't taking (and when I saw all the cool new Season Two releases coming out) that's when I decided:

No more Union models for me.


******


Now what I can't promise you is that this will be an easy road. In all honesty it's made every single one of my games extraordinarily challenging (and I wasn't great at this to begin with). But after months of slogging away (and yes I did fall off the wagon a few times) here's what I found...

1). I'm getting more value out of the game. A close game is a good game. In my opinion a close game is a better game than dishing out a thrashing. With the exceptions of last night's 12-4 pounding of Fishermen (where I just deadset served up champagne Guild Ball with every other activation and legitimately realised how far I've come with the game) and that one time I lost 12-0 to Shark on all Take Outs, the most incredible games of Guild Ball I've had have seen the score settle to around at least a 12-8 finish. The hair is literally raising on the back of your neck right up to the final whistle. These are the games you recount to your grandchildren or (slightly more likely) report on Facebook. Or wish you'd streamed on Twitch (#crotchshot).


Another quality shot from Handsome Dave's Handsome Plays.


2). You become better as a player. I can say with (some small amount of) humility that I have definitely improved as a player since I stopped using Union models in my team. I feel like I'm thinking harder but at the same time (on the clock) more economically. I'm trying different things and expanding my personal playbook. I'm looking less online for inspiration and digging deeper into my own game.

3). You appreciate the true depth of your team and nuance of player design BEFORE you write them off as unplayable trash. The challenge requires at least 6 games. One game is no test at all. Two games barely has you understanding that Bonesaw isn't Mist. Three games you actually count out the right number of starting INF. 4+ games you're online. 6+ games... that's money printing territory. Give it time. Take your time. Open your mind.

4). You surprise the heck out of people. When the accepted line is "player X is rubbish" people tend to sit up and take notice when they are blindsided with sharper positioning, models utilising unique attributes without hanging themselves out to dry and be traded pointlessly in return, and the Unexpected Arrival (he shoots!... he scores!) of super sweet tech that they didn't know was coming because "you never see that model on the pitch".


But mostly, point number one. It broadens the scope of the game. I'm realising now just how much a game can change when you switch out one player for another - the synergies (or lack of) that become apparent over the course of the experience. Discovering new combinations is one of the great joys of the game and you're doing yourself a great injustice (and taking yourself far too seriously) if you forgo even giving it a chance.


******


It's a personal revelation and I can't move people forward or backward to align with my experience and opinion. I can however very much vouch for how exciting it makes every game and how much life it will inject if you're in a rut running the same tired old team.


What am I running at the moment and how different is it to "competitive Morticians"?

Scalpel, Dirge, Casket, Bonesaw, Graves2, Silence


And it's awesome. It doesn't win every game but every game is amazing. I'm terrible with Bonesaw but genuinely excited to persevere. Graves2 was a major disappointment until my last game when he went nuts on a charge and then scored a goal. Casket's Foul Odour is forever tripping me up as much as it is distressing my opponent but with every game my positioning and foresight improves (and last night he took out two players - the first one Casket Timed - before tackling the ball and kicking into space to set up the winning goal). And Scalpel isn't Obulus. And it's glorious. And it's very different.

And that gives me hope that we'll still be playing Guild Ball this time next year.


Cheers.

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Pass me the Scalpel


A few games into playing Scalpel now and I'm seeing the need to put digital pen to digital paper for some reflection. I'll harken back to my previous article and follow the same format.




******


MOBILITY

Originally I considered Scalpel to likely be one of the most mobile models in the game and I stand by that call. She's right up there for sheer table distance covered, flat-tack moving 16" with a Sprint and Second Wind. Her Dodge-heavy playbook allows her to add to this on a whim. I've been most interested in tracking Scalpel's starting position in a game compared to her finishing location and every time she has been impressive - most recently managing an almost complete lap of the interior board space. She is definitely not a player of straight lines and predictability. 100% of her Second Wind usage has been on herself and every instance of Second Wind bar one has been triggered by her Heroic Play. The one time I spent INF to Second Wind it was so that I could Sprint up and stay outside of Brick's counter-charge bubble, then Second Wind to pick up a free ball before retreating back towards by own table edge as my first activation after kicking off. 16" of potential movement every turn is crazy good. If she had 2" melee I'm quite certain she'd be broken as heck.

Her mobility - the ability to position herself for favourable engagements and to disengage to safety - is arguably the most important part of her game.

She's so fast that she's often found to be playing hard on the flank because repositioning her to the centre is dead easy. Also having her on the flank helps keep her safe and plays to her remarkably solid...


DEFENSE

My claims to her being relatively safe on the pitch, despite her average defensive statline, has also rung true. She's rarely in a position where she can be charged, less so at a time where my opponent isn't confronted with seemingly more pressing issues. The last attack in her activation is almost always a Push/Dodge on three hits and this allows her to disengage and then Second Wind well away from reprisal. Slippery has never come up. Again, Unnatural Stamina is a massive part of the Scalpel survival plan. The point here is that her survivability isn't reliant on her shtick and card text and bullshit - if she lives it's because as a player you've played well enough to ensure her survival. For me that has definite appeal.

I've found her Knock Down on 6 hits to be frustratingly difficult to achieve but at the same it's very much also appeared to be icing on the cake and as the KD result is non-Momentous she often has better things to do with her time (like clocking up 5-6 Momentum and draining models of allocated INF).

I haven't used Wake the Dead once yet but yesterday played her in a team with Bonesaw and Casket (who have Reanimate as standard) and the option to have three Reanimating models looked amusing at the very least.


OFFENSE

I vastly under-estimated how punchy Scalpel is. Like, holy crap does she kick some serious ass! Four hits is the sweet spot - Momentous 2 damage and Tormented Agony - but I'm also loving her Playbook options for a range of Momentous and non-Momentous damage results combined with other options (Pushes and Dodges). In this regard I find her MUCH better than Obulus and his constant barrage of 1" Dodges while he flounders for 3 successful hits to generate 2 Momentous damage.

Tormented Agony... this is seriously one of the most fascinating parts of her game. Whenever I can I'll choose 4 successful hits to do some reasonable damage and shift INF around. It's a dramatically different control mechanism to what Obulus is bringing but is a clutch aspect of her role on the table. Sometimes it's worked exceptionally well and at other times it's blown up in my face. Example - stripping Hooper of INF and passing it all to Scum. Scum then goes mental and scratches up Rage real bad. Example - stripping INF off Esters and passing it all to Spigot before using Second Wind to escape any means of reprisal and leaving Spigot out of range to contribute anything in his activation (forcing an opponent to waste INF is living the dream).

Tooled Up on Scalpel is pretty damn sweet but I'm in a dark place where I'm running an all Morticians build at the moment so can't talk too much to that. I've tried it and it's amazing.

Anatomical Precision is a game-changer. I've been playing a lot of Brewers and Masons and they hate that Character Trait with the burning fire of a thousand suns. Excellent. It's remarkably useful for saving you from bad dice and dumb ill luck.

She's a constant contributor to the game (as you would expect of any good Captain) and scores 4-8 points in each match. In one game against Brewers she scored all of my points with 2 Goals and two Take Outs. Amaze.


SUPPORT

Also as predicted (although I would have been delighted to be surprised!), her capacity to prove a solid support model for her team is low. She gets 6 INF and goes to work doing her thing, building a Momentum base and screwing INF allocation (indirectly helping the rest of her team I guess). The Second Wind on Ghast or Cosset theory has so far been just that - idle thoughts and dreams - because Scalpel is too busy saving her own ass to care about her team.


*****


In every game I have used her Legendary Play to Push in a player of choice - preferably a Mascot - for a damn good beating. It's netted me a Marbles kill at the right time in the turn, and kept me from being counter-charged by Brick while still allowing me to pull Mallet in for some stabby loving. The 13" threat (Sprint, 1" melee, LP Push) has felt a little short and I feel that there's a lot to learn combing the LP with Dodges etc. It has provided her with the opportunity to bounce off models to close on the goal though. I also need to think harder about placement in order to Push non-direct target secondary models (i.e. stuff I can Push that she won't be punching). I like that it takes good positioning and thinking to make optimal use of the Legendary and this part of the unique challenge of getting best value out of her.

If it was a 3" Push in any direction that would be insane. But it's still pretty good.


*****


What's she like compared to Obulus? Massively different. Less powerful. Enormous fun to play with though, and that's something that's personally very important to me. I'm currently on a bender trying to prove to myself that Steamforged aren't idiots and that they managed to create a more genuinely well-balanced game (ref: my next article), and in this regard while you argue that Obulus is better for competitive play, I do like that Scalpel still pulls plenty of weight and that played well she can produce the goods with consistency.

The necessity to "play well" might just be the most attractive quality. Obulus has so many "outs" and gotchas that he's started to feel more than a little boring to use. Scalpel is a constant challenge and thinking game and that's exceptional when you consider the longevity of the Guild and the depth of the game.


Monday, May 2, 2016

MOV Stats

Our penultimate article in the realm of player stats.




DATA - OVERWHELMING



3/5"
1
4/5"
1
4/6"
16
4/7"
5
5/6"
1
5/7"
16
5/8"
15
6/8"
32
6/9"
2
7/9"
10
8/10"
1

 One thing that immediately stands out with MOV is the number of anomalous stats:
  • Strongbox, 3/5"
  • Greede, 4/5"
  • Silence, 5/6"
  • Vitriol and Decimate, 6/9"
  • Dirge, 8/10" 
Because this raw data is slightly hard to objectivize for comparison purposes (at least for someone of my mediocre statistical talents), I have further broken down the data into Base MOV:

Base MOV:

3"
1
4"
22
5"
32
6"
34
7"
10
8"
1







The most common stat, by a significant margin, is 6/8". MOV 6 is shared by 34% of the players in the game. Despite this, MOV 6 slightly above the mean average (5.33). Only 11 players are faster than MOV 6 base (13 faster than 6/8"), whereas 55 players are MOV 5 base or slower.


 Captains and Mascots


Captains are pretty evenly spread across the board. There is a good chunk in the average 5" MOV bracket, with 5 captains in the 4" MOV bracket and 5 captains in the 6" and 7" MOV bracket. Again, these numbers are not really representative of the true degree of mobility and are just general figures. Obulus and Smoke are both much faster than their low MOV indicates, while someone like Ox or Theron is relatively static compared to say, Blackheart.




Unlike with the TAC stat, the mascot MOV stats reflect the game as a whole quite well. We have a huge spread of numbers (as wide as possible) - Strongbox is the slowest model in the game, and Dirge is the fastest. Most of the mascots (9 out of 17) are centered in the game-median 6/8" bracket, with a base MOV median of 5.6". This shows that mascots in general are a bit quicker than the average player, especially when you count in the multiple innate movement buffs available to them (ie. Mother's Burrow, Tentacle's Tag Along, Dirge and Coin's Follow Up, Scum's Shadow Like, etc).

MOV stats - Guild by Guild




Mean average base MOV stats:


Brewers
Union
Alchemists
Hunters
Masons
Butchers
Fishermen
Morticians
Engineers
4.7
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.6
5.7



Some pretty surprising results here!

  • Alchemists are apparently on the slower end of things! This shows the importance of considering other factors, like the prevalence of fast Union models being common inclusions in Midas teams, Vitriol's cover buffs, Midas' push/pull result on 2 hits, and Smoke's teleport skills. So while they are slow at base, I'd argue they are a pretty mobile team on the whole, at least comparable to Butchers.
  • Brewers again demonstrating their crappy stats - by a significant margin the slowest guild on average. They do have some movement buffs available (ie. Spigot's heroic and Esters' chants), and Friday and Spigot are both remarkably fast strikers, but generally their big weakness is their lower mobility.
  • Butchers are just a little above average, the fastest of the fighting guilds. They also have a couple of MOV buffs available to them (ie. Quick Foot, Smell Blood, Marked Target), bringing them a little further ahead of the other fighters. Not to mention Shank. Their mobility helps offset their relatively lower survivability for a fighting guild.
  • Engineers are one of the biggest surprises of this analysis. The fastest base MOV team! Who would have thought? Part of this is that their Mascots and big guys are reasonably quick compared to their counterpart on other teams, and they have quick strikers. They do not particularly have a lot of really fast models, just consistently good MOV stats.
  • Fishermen are the second (equal) fastest team. This isn't really a surprise, which players like Shark, Sakana, Salt, Siren and basically anyone else whose name starts with 's'. Their average is brought down a lot by their 4/6" 40mm base models though, and Greyscales' deceptively low MOV. All things considered, they are probably the most mobile team in the game if you play without the 'tanks'.
  • Masons, square in the middle in the MOV department. Most of their players are in the 6/8" category, but nobody is faster than that. Mallet and Brick bring them down a bit, although both have threat extensions to bring them up a bit.
  • Morticians, once again are showing that there stats are significantly better than one first expects. In fact, they have the second highest base MOV in the game, tied with Fishermen! Realistically, they are a bit slower than Fish given the lower number of MOV buffs. However their relative mobility is quite good, especially when you consider enemy repositions like Puppet Master, Lure or Voodoo Strings. Sickening. Their number is definitely boosted up by Dirge though.
  • Union show up with a low base MOV result, mostly due to having many MOV 3/4 models skewing the average. More realistically, they are probably somewhere closer to the Masons in term of mobility.
  • Finally,  Hunters show up as pretty average statistically, once again. While not especially quick, they do have excellent situational movement tricks (Hearne's Nature's Blessing and Zarola's Midnight Offering, for example) but their main mobility advantage will be slowing down the enemy with tricks like terrain, snared and Gut & String.






Wednesday, April 27, 2016

TAC stats

More funky data for you, this time looking at TAC stats. A lot more straightforward than defensive stats, since you can claim that TAC 5 is almost objectively better than TAC 4, which you can't really do when comparing defensive stat lines like 5+/0, 4+/1 and 3+/2.
I say almost because TAC interacts directly with a character's playbook, and it could be argued that TAC 5 with a 4 column playbook is better than TAC 6 with a 6 column playbook in many situations.

Here is the chart for the whole game:

CLICK ME


TAC
Players
2
6
3
12
4
20
5
34
6
20
7
5
8
3

Unlike the DEF curve, the TAC chart looks a lot more like a bell curve - a dominant median average in TAC 5, with the mean being just below that at 4.77 (thanks, Mascots). I thus have no problem making the claim that TAC 5 is an 'average' stat.

Captains and Mascots

Next, a more focused look at Captains and Mascots:


 
We can see immediately by looking at Captains that they have an above average TAC on the whole. The median (10/17) is a TAC of 6, whereas the mean average is just a little over 6 (6.18). Nothing too impressive, as you expect your captain to pull their weight. Surprisingly, there is only 1 TAC 8 Captain (Fillet, not surprisingly a Butcher) and 1 TAC 4 Captain (Smoke, not surprisingly an Alchemist).

In terms of Mascots, we can see a general pattern - they suck. Mascots generally are not meant to achieve much in combat, usually having a utility role or being an INF battery. Princess and Scum are the two with higher TAC scores, and also the two of the three with legit dealing damage capabilities thanks to their playbooks (Fahad being the third).

TAC Stats by Guild


Finally, we come to Guild by Guild numbers:



Mean average TAC stats across guilds:


Fishermen
Engineers
Masons
Alchemists
Union
Morticians
Brewers
Hunters
Butchers
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.8
5
5.6

  • Alchemists are just a little lower than average (mean 4.7), which is suitable for a guild with playbooks mostly designed to get out of combat. There are a few notable exceptions of courses - both Katalysts have excellent TAC, along with Midas, and also Vitriol thanks to her cover bonuses - which boost their average up significantly.
  • Brewers, again, demonstrate largely mediocre stats with a heavy skew towards the median TAC of 5 and a mean just below that (4.8). This is deceptive of their impressive melee capabilities given their buffs and short playbooks, not to mention their tendency to get into a brawl and stack on Ganging Up bonuses.
    Shoutout to that TAC 6 Stave.
  • Butchers unsurprisingly are way above average (5.6) in their TAC scores, with 2 of the 3 TAC 8 models in the game. They want to get in combat and make attacks and get high playbook results for those big damage numbers.
  • Engineers are on the low end of the scale (4.5), except lack a melee monster like Katalyst to boost their numbers. They only really want to use their TAC to get out of combat or generate enough momentum to do their thing (score some goals and heal up, usually), which is where the captains' TAC of 6 can help.
  • Fishermen are at the bottom of the pile in the TAC department (4.4) Their captains' TAC of 6 helps them get enough momentum to make it through their turn and do their thing (goals, counter attacks), while most of their players' mediocre TAC scores are just sufficient to get the low playbook results they require for momentous dodges. It certainly doesn't help them in the damage department or pulling off power plays, though.
  • Masons are also a little bit lower than average (4.5), which is not that big a deal for them as they have access to some decent TAC buffs when needed, as well as most of their momentous results being low on the playbooks. If they want to get big numbers in combat, they can make it happen.
  • Morticians are in a pretty good spot (4.8) for a 'non brawler' guild, thanks to a surprising number of TAC 6 models with Graves and Ghast. Quite a few of their players' big power plays are triggered by GB results (ie. Unmasking, Tormented Agony, Unexpected Arrival, etc). so they need to get into combat to make these things happen.
  • Union also average out nicely (4.7) putting them in the middle of the pack, with 5 models above TAC 5 and 5 below. Those two TAC 2 Mascots certainly help bring things down.
  • Hunters again have a perfect spread of stats (5), showing the diversity and specialization in the guild, as well as their overall tendency to get those big playbook results on certain players (especially stacked with the -1DEF from Snared!).


Funnily enough, the above spectrum is also quite representative of "most likely to win via goals alone" to "most likely to win via takeouts alone". :)